Falls jemand eine pessimistische Prognose kennt, bin ich für einen Hinweis dankbar.
In vielen Analysen werden überwiegend höhere Preise erwartet.
Beispiele
Hedge fund manager Andurand: full reopening of Chinese economy could send oil prices past $140 per barrel.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/...-Economy-Fully-Reopens.html
Deutsche Bank
"Energie und Rohstoffe bleiben teuer
„Die Zeit günstiger Energie dürfte erst einmal vorbei sein“, sagt Volkswirt Schattenberg. „Preise wie vor der Krise werden wir wohl vorerst nicht mehr sehen.“ Die Deutsche Bank erwartet für die europäische Sorte Brent Preise von rund 100 Dollar pro Barrel; für die amerikanische Sorte WTI dürfte der Preis etwas darunter liegen. Auch Gas, dessen Preis sich in den vergangenen Wochen recht stabil bei knapp über 100 Euro pro Megawattstunde eingependelt hat, bleibt teuer. „Die Energiekrise bietet für einige Industrien aber auch Chancen“, sagt Schattenberg. Sie sei ein Treiber für die Grüne Transformation der Wirtschaft. Auch bei Industriemetallen dürfte das Preisniveau mittelfristig hoch bleiben. Hier treibt der wirtschaftliche Wandel zu mehr Nachhaltigkeit die Kurse.
https://www.db.com/news/detail/...silienz-und-rezession?language_id=3
*****
ING
"Tighter oil market
There is still plenty of uncertainty over Russian oil supply given the EU’s ban on Russian crude oil and refined products. However, we believe that Russian supply will fall significantly early next year – in the region of 1.8MMbbls/d year-on-year in the first quarter. This supply loss coupled with continued OPEC+ supply cuts suggests that the oil market will tighten over the course of 2023. US supply growth will not be able to fill the gap, with US producers showing a lot more capital discipline. As a result, we expect ICE Brent to average US$104/bbl next year."
https://think.ing.com/articles/our-three-calls-on-commodities-2023/
*****
JP Morgan
"
Commodity price forecasts for 2023, with Brent averaging $90 per barrel, WTI averaging $83 and gold averaging $1,860 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
There are strong reasons to expect a relatively robust 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil demand growth next year, despite expectations for the global economy to expand at a sub-par 1.5% pace in 2023. There is still substantial room for a cyclical rebound, driven by a continued normalization of demand for mobility fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to pre-COVID levels.
“Our forecast of a $90 Brent in 2023 centers on the view that the OPEC+ alliance (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) will do the heavy lifting to keep markets balanced next year,” added Kaneva.
On the structural side, expansion of the world’s oil supply growth is expected to slow in 2024, reviving the need for OPEC’s crude. Growth from U.S. shale producers, traditionally the most responsive to changing market conditions, is expected to more than halve from 1.1-1.2 mbd this year and next to 0.5 mbd in 2024."
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/market-outlook
*****
Bank of America
"Oil prices could be higher for longer
“Russian sanctions, low oil inventories, China reopening, and an OPEC that’s willing to cut production in case demand weakens keeps energy prices high. Brent Crude should average $100 per barrel over the course of 2023 and spike in the second half of the year at $110,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities, equity derivatives and cross-asset quantitative investment strategies."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/...23-according-to-bofa-11670879598 |
